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Who will control the ups and downs of future power lithium battery technology?
The development of electric vehicles is indeed a systematic project. The innovation of this system includes the positive research and development of the whole vehicle, "three powers", lightweight, intelligent and many other aspects, but the most basic and most important thing should be the breakthrough of battery technology. , The battery should be a key to solving many problems of electric vehicles, especially mileage anxiety, high cost, and performance improvement. To promote coordinated development and realize battery-led innovation, Zhang Yongwei, secretary general and chief expert of the my country Electric Vehicles Association of 100, summarized the following ten aspects:
First, repositioning the battery industry.
One conclusion of our research is that the battery industry should be at the forefront of innovation in the entire electric vehicle industry and should be used as a "locomotive". The development of electric vehicles is indeed a systematic project. The innovation of this system includes the positive research and development of the whole vehicle, "three powers", lightweight, intelligent and many other aspects, but the most basic and most important thing should be the breakthrough of battery technology. , The battery should be a key to solving many problems of electric vehicles, especially mileage anxiety, high cost, and performance improvement. In the past, in the overall layout of electric vehicles, the battery did play an important role, but now it seems that we need to increase it, especially the lithium-powered lithium battery route. It is indeed necessary to accelerate innovation and also have a strong urgency. sense. In order to accelerate the innovation of pure electric technology routes based on lithium-ion batteries and ternary batteries, find areas where they can play their core competitiveness in the competition of technical routes, otherwise they will face the risk of being replaced. However, the innovation of batteries is also facing many problems. The chairman of the board also mentioned that there are still problems of imbalance and incoordination in the ecology of the entire battery. The materials and the battery are not in harmony, and the battery and the vehicle are not in harmony. The entire battery manufacturing and environmental protection industry chain also has inconsistencies, so the battery industry is leading the way. To solve the current imbalance and incoordination problems, this requires a repositioning of the battery.
Second, we must attach great importance to upstream resource issues strategically.
In the early stages of development, we seldom discussed resources, always thinking that resources are endless. When resources become a bottleneck, we feel that strategic resource planning should be put on the agenda as early as possible. This is how the industry chain used to be. There are some shortcomings in the plan. Now the whole world, everyone saw it yesterday, and India also proposed to use the power of the country to acquire and control key lithium resources and cobalt resources around the world. Now we lack a big layout. Lithium resources in our country are relatively abundant, but cobalt resources are barren. China only accounts for more than 1% of the global cobalt reserves. Therefore, the resource bottleneck is gradually broken by the 100,000-level electric vehicle. When it reaches the order of millions and will reach the order of tens of millions by 2030, this bottleneck should be very prominent, so our second suggestion is to plan upstream resource issues strategically early. Now the price of resources has become a prominent aspect of the whole incoordination. That is to say, the bottleneck of upstream resource development technology has led to our low self-production rate. Therefore, the supply of resources has tightened, so the price has soared, and the soaring price has led to the entire industrial chain. Cost pressure has risen sharply. Therefore, the space for price increases is passed to the battery, to the vehicle, and then to the consumer. Therefore, this price has become the most important aspect of reducing the cost of the electric vehicle industry. Supply-side reform, the supply-side of our electric vehicle industry, and the cost reduction of upstream resources should be our most important aspect, so that electric vehicles can enter the market faster.
Third, my country's competition performance is better.
Just now, the chairman of the board also mentioned that we accounted for half of the ten companies in the world. In terms of output, output, shipment, and especially competitiveness, there is a rare opportunity to lead. With so many emerging industries in our country, electric vehicles are more satisfied. They are praised in the world and open up electric vehicles. In the entire automotive industry chain, the best thing to do is actually batteries. Other aspects still exist. Much short board. Our output is very large, and there is also a problem of virtual investment. The so-called virtual investment is that a large amount of investment is accumulated around some solid technologies and around some low-end fields, and it is easy to produce some uncompetitive output. These output may eventually become an obstacle to industrial innovation, so output Bigger is not necessarily the biggest advantage, but it is difficult to cross the threshold of building competition without output, so this is a double-edged sword.
Fourth, the competitive situation in the industry is important in the Asia-Pacific region, my country, Japan and South Korea.
The chairman of the board also mentioned that many Korean companies attended the meeting today. SK, LG, Samsung, Korean, Japanese, and Chinese battery companies have their own strengths, but we should really feel that in the next generation of batteries In this round of competition, we run production and use our management practices to make domestic companies grow rapidly. However, in the next generation of battery competition, there is indeed great uncertainty about who will rise and fall. . We vaguely feel that if Chinese companies do not speed up the deployment of next-generation battery technology, the competitive landscape will be rewritten. Therefore, the pressure of competition is still huge. Indeed, there are many good and bad in our industry, and there are many more extensive ones. Some practices have affected the reputation of the industry. In fact, the reputation of the battery industry is not very good. Companies that have done well think that they are worthy of praise. However, many companies in these fields are indeed caught in the development path of extensive, blind enclosure, money, and circle concepts. In the end, not only Not being able to cultivate a positive result by oneself has also affected the reputation of the industry. Therefore, it is indeed necessary to encourage truly competitive companies to take on the responsibility of industry development so that the industry can truly become bigger and stronger in the future competition. This is an aspect that the battery industry really needs to pay attention to.
Fifth, from the company's development strategy, expanding more areas and binding strategic resources have become important measures for battery companies.
Expansion of the field does not mean to expand to real estate, but to expand to the upstream key cross-cutting areas. Blind diversification is now also a concern in the battery industry. Once the company feels that it has become such an influential brand in the industry, it is indeed critical to maintain a strategy. We are very worried that the company will not be able to hold onto its own strategy. Excessive consumption of this kind of market brand acquired through competition is also a problem that must be grasped. To seize opportunities, but prevent falling into the trap of blind expansion. In addition, binding strategic resources, especially through internationalization to realize the layout of upstream resources, is an important field that China's battery companies are currently exploring, allowing battery companies to assume the responsibility of national strategic resource planning . Of course, how the battery company lays out the industrial chain? At present, everyone is paying most attention to the relationship between the battery and the vehicle. Through in-depth cooperation between the two, it can indeed solve the problems that could not be solved in the past by individual combat. In the past, the battery did not understand the entire vehicle, so the battery delivered to the entire vehicle had to be re-developed and reused. The entire vehicle did not understand the battery. As for how the battery can realize the coordination of the entire vehicle, there are some problems that we said to study again. Through the in-depth integration between the two, the past dual-track operation "two skins" problem can be solved, but it is also necessary to consider how to achieve a better "integrated zero relationship". At that time, let us lose an independent, globally competitive and professional battery company from the market. After a few years, such a company has disappeared, and has transformed into a company in other fields. This is not necessarily the best result for the industry. That is, our country does want several independent and professional battery companies with global competitiveness.
Sixth, batteries drive the rapid development of equipment, recycling, and commercial operations.
When the battery is up, the driving force is very strong. It not only promotes the development of our cars, but more importantly, drives the equipment. Now the key to a good battery is to have good equipment. The key to good equipment is to make the company know the equipment better. Therefore, companies that do a good job of batteries are often companies that have more say in equipment. Therefore, batteries drive the development of the equipment industry, as well as the development of the manufacturing industry and the development of intelligence. We have found that battery companies that have done a good job have the best level of intelligence. Smart manufacturing, unmanned workshops, and product control are also top-notch. Now the level of intelligence of battery companies is ahead of automakers. This is a battery company. It's driving. In addition, it also drives the innovation of new business models. During our research, we also found that it is very likely that in the next few years there will be nationwide or even overseas battery operating companies. There will be both battery manufacturers and specialized battery operating companies. These operating companies Combining operation and recycling, and introducing financial attributes, it will realize a good business model, which is to operate batteries, recycle batteries, and use batteries in cascades, so that batteries can be digitized and assets securitized. Therefore, in the profit model Maybe it works. The battery itself is also servicing, and the manufacturing industry is servicing.
Seventh, the future technology will control the ups and downs.
We found that there is indeed a very severe competition in technology. The future technology will be ups and downs, and indeed no one dares to guarantee votes. Everyone looks at the cost of our power lithium battery. The cost of the battery cell has reached 5 or 6 wool per watt-hour. It has achieved low cost through technological advancement and has become very competitive. The chairman also mentioned just now, what is the next generation battery? There is indeed a lot of competition uncertainty. Therefore, we say that battery technology should give full play to its unique advantages in many technical routes, but which battery technology can dominate our industry in the future must indeed be observed in innovation. It cannot stay at the current level, it is potential Alternative technologies and even disruptive technologies still exist, so there will be technological "black swan" in this field.
Eighth, the key lies in R&D and technological innovation.
Our research found that the industry in the final analysis lies in innovation and R&D, especially innovation at the source. But in our field, we feel that the biggest problem is not just the company's insufficient investment. my country has the fastest technology and application innovation in the battery field, but source innovation and basic innovation are lacking. One of the important reasons why the source innovation and basic innovation cannot be solved for a long time is that our R&D organization method may need to be updated and improved. Those who do basic research often don’t care much about market demand. The chain of production, learning, and research cannot be opened up. Some scientific and technological platforms that undertake national basic research have gone too far, and they have engaged in product-level R&D too much. Taking on the important task of public technology basic research given by the state has led to our investment and organization in the source field and basic field are not in place, which also determines the possibility of weak industrial innovation in the future is a hidden worry.
Ninth, promote the coordinated development of industries.
It is suggested that the industry should have a good ecology and achieve coordinated development. Technological and industrial synergy, the market should also be synergized, and the interests should be synergized. There must be no too many profit distortions, that is, long-term losses in a certain link may not be good for the industry. Therefore, both industrial synergy must be achieved. To market synergy and benefit synergy.
Tenth, in order to construct a good industrial ecology, a good policy and regulatory environment must be established.
Batteries are an industry with full competition and externalities. The government needs to manage more efficiently and scientifically, but the government must take into account the law of innovation in this industry in its management, and leave sufficient expectations and policy adjustments for the company’s technological improvement. time. His research and development cycle, replacement cycle at least two years or even longer, too fast policy adjustments, not too many expected policy adjustments, may make the company easy to become passive. Second, in the supervision, more emphasis is placed on external supervision, such as safety and environmental protection, and afterwards supervision is emphasized, and some relatively simple administrative management is reduced. Some of the administrative methods we used in the early stage may be more externalistic after the fact. Supervision to transform, so as to create a good industry development environment for our company.